National Drug Stockout Risks in Africa: Analysis of the Global Fund Disbursement Process for Procurement from 2002 to 2013​

31 Pages Posted: 24 Jun 2014

See all articles by Jérémie Gallien

Jérémie Gallien

London Business School

Iva Rashkova

London Business School

Rifat A. Atun

Imperial College London

Prashant Yadav

Harvard Medical School

Date Written: May 2014

Abstract

Despite substantial financial aid from international donors for procurement of health products, stockouts of life-saving drugs related to prevalent infectious diseases are still widespread in Africa. Addressing the lack of research on why these stockouts occur, we study the relationship between The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and its grant recipients. Specifically, we leverage extensive historical fund disbursement and drug procurement data to build a discrete-event simulation model predicting the joint impact of procurement and grant disbursement processes on national drug availability for the Global Fund’s recipient countries in Africa. This model is validated against cumulative stockout levels inferred from historical grant implementation lengths, and used to evaluate potential high-level modifications of disbursement or procurement processes. Results show the existence of substantial intrinsic stockout risks in many countries, due to the unpredictability of fund disbursements and the frequency of grant performance monitoring performed by the Global Fund. Interventions increasing fund disbursement levels to protect against disbursement timing uncertainty are predicted to be more effective than others that include regional buffer stocks and bridge financing.

Keywords: Global Health, Health Financing & Procurement, Global Fund, Drug Stockouts, Africa

Suggested Citation

Gallien, Jérémie and Rashkova, Iva and Atun, Rifat A. and Yadav, Prashant, National Drug Stockout Risks in Africa: Analysis of the Global Fund Disbursement Process for Procurement from 2002 to 2013​ (May 2014). Ross School of Business Paper No. 1241. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2458038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2458038

Jérémie Gallien (Contact Author)

London Business School ( email )

Sussex Place
Regent's Park
London, London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.london.edu/jgallien/

Iva Rashkova

London Business School ( email )

Sussex Place
Regent's Park
London, London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom

Rifat A. Atun

Imperial College London ( email )

South Kensington Campus
London, DC SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/r.atun

Prashant Yadav

Harvard Medical School ( email )

25 Shattuck St
Boston, MA 02115
United States

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