Estimating DSGE Models with Zero Interest Rate Policy

41 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2014 Last revised: 25 Jan 2017

See all articles by Mariano Kulish

Mariano Kulish

University of New South Wales (UNSW)

James Morley

University of Sydney

Tim Robinson

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 28, 2016

Abstract

We propose an approach to estimating structural models in which the central bank holds the policy rate fixed for an extended period of the estimation sample. Embedding this policy in a version of the Smets and Wouters (2007) model that incorporates information from the yield curve to help with identification at the zero lower bound, we jointly estimate the structural parameters for the period of 1983-2014 and the expected duration of the zero interest rate policy in each quarter since 2009. This allows us to assess the effects of the zero lower bound, in particular, how private agents’ beliefs about its duration influence output, inflation and interest rates at longer maturities. We find considerable variation in the expected duration over time, with a large increase in 2011 when the Federal Reserve moved to calendar-based forward guidance and a similar decrease in 2013 with the so-called ‘Taper tantrum’. We also measure the severity of the zero lower bound as a constraint and quantify the associated output losses. Conditional forecasts from the model suggest that a longer expected duration corresponds to higher output growth in the near term, with offsetting lower growth at the time of expected liftoff. Impulse response analysis confirms that an exogenous change in the expected duration has significant effects on the real economy.

Keywords: Zero lower bound, forward guidance, Bayesian estimation

JEL Classification: E52; E58

Suggested Citation

Kulish, Mariano and Morley, James and Robinson, Tim, Estimating DSGE Models with Zero Interest Rate Policy (October 28, 2016). UNSW Australia Business School Research Paper No. 2014-32B. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2460550 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2460550

Mariano Kulish (Contact Author)

University of New South Wales (UNSW) ( email )

Kensington
High St
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

James Morley

University of Sydney ( email )

Rm 370 Merewether (H04)
Sydney, NSW 2006 2008
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/jamescmorley/

Tim Robinson

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )

Level 5, FBE Building, 111 Barry Street
161 Barry Street
Carlton, VIC 3053
Australia

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