Evaluating Endogenous Program Interventions with Heterogeneous Treatment Intensity Using Bayesian Potential Outcomes Approach

31 Pages Posted: 6 Jul 2014

See all articles by Andinet Woldemichael

Andinet Woldemichael

University of Maryland Baltimore

Degnet Abebaw

Ethiopian Economics Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute

Assefa Admassie

Ethiopian Economics Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute

Date Written: May 25, 2014

Abstract

In this paper, we implement Bayesian potential outcomes model to evaluate the impact of program interventions using non-randomized data. The approach jointly addresses selection bias in program placement, heterogeneous treatment intensity among the treated, and heterogeneity in treatment effects. Using data from a non-randomized household survey, we evaluate the impact of Ethiopia's Health Extension Program on fertility and child mortality outcomes. We find that there is significant selection bias in both program placement and intensity of exposure to the program among the treated. On average, the program has significant impact in reducing fertility and child mortality. However, there is notable heterogeneity in the treatment effects ranging from negative impacts for some individuals to positive impacts for the majority in the sample. We recover individual-level treatment effects and present the distributions graphically.

Keywords: Endogenous Program Placement, Heterogeneous Treatment Intensity, Bayesian Potential Outcomes, Heterogeneous Treatment E ects, Health Extension Program, Fertility, Child mortality.

JEL Classification: C11, C31, D04, I15, I18, J13

Suggested Citation

Woldemichael, Andinet and Abebaw, Degnet and Admassie, Assefa, Evaluating Endogenous Program Interventions with Heterogeneous Treatment Intensity Using Bayesian Potential Outcomes Approach (May 25, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2462571 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2462571

Andinet Woldemichael (Contact Author)

University of Maryland Baltimore ( email )

100 N. Greene Street
Room 01-212
Baltimore, MD 21214
United States

Degnet Abebaw

Ethiopian Economics Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute ( email )

Addis Ababa, 34282
Ethiopia

Assefa Admassie

Ethiopian Economics Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute ( email )

Addis Ababa, 34282
Ethiopia

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