A Model to Evaluate Vehicle Emission Incentive Policies in Japan

40 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2014

See all articles by Don Fullerton

Don Fullerton

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Li Gan

Texas A&M University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Miwa Hattori

University of Texas at Austin

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 25, 2014

Abstract

Using three years of data from the 47 prefectures of Japan, we estimate behavior of households who simultaneously make discrete decisions about vehicle ownership and continuous decisions about driving distance. We use the estimated parameters to calculate elasticities and to simulate the effects of alternative pollution control policies such as taxes on gasoline, on distance, or on particular cars. Given choices about cars and distance, we also calculate emissions. Since we model simultaneous choices, both the chosen distance and the chosen car can be affected either by a tax on distance or by a tax on car characteristics. We find expected signs for coefficients on price and income. Car choices are relatively inelastic, however, either to taxes on cars or to taxes on gas or distance. Thus emissions are more affected by taxes on gasoline than by taxes on particular vehicles. Yet taxes on cars have lower costs on consumers and thus lower marginal cost of abatement. Given that the existing gas tax already achieves some abatement, mostly through driving reduction, this analysis suggests that further abatement from the use of distance-reducing taxes is more costly than achieving some marginal abatement from induced changes in car choices. The option with the lowest cost is to tax each car at a rate proportional to its emission rate.

JEL Classification: Q480

Suggested Citation

Fullerton, Don and Gan, Li and Hattori, Miwa, A Model to Evaluate Vehicle Emission Incentive Policies in Japan (June 25, 2014). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4866. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2463607

Don Fullerton (Contact Author)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Finance ( email )

1206 South Sixth Street
Champaign, IL 61820
United States
(217) 244-3621 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Li Gan

Texas A&M University - Department of Economics ( email )

5201 University Blvd.
College Station, TX 77843-4228
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Miwa Hattori

University of Texas at Austin ( email )

2317 Speedway
Austin, TX 78712
United States

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