ICT and Non-ICT Investments: Short and Long Run Macro Dynamics

Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 956

30 Pages Posted: 18 Jul 2014

See all articles by Fabio Bacchini

Fabio Bacchini

Italian Statistical Institute

Maria Elena Bontempi

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Roberto Golinelli

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Cecilia Jona Lasinio

Italian Statistical Institute

Date Written: July 16, 2014

Abstract

In this paper, we model business investment distinguishing between ICT (communication equipment, hardware and software) and Non-ICT (machinery and equipment, and nonresidential buildings) components and taking into account asset specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of capital accumulation over the business cycle.

Business investment and ICT and Non-ICT assets are estimated within a VECM model to test, in a unique framework, the assumptions of the flexible accelerator model (Clark, 1944, and Koyck, 1954) and of the neoclassical model of Hall and Jorgenson (1967), as well as how financial constraints and uncertainty influence investment behaviour (Hall and Lerner, 2010, and Bloom, 2007).

Our findings suggest that the long-run relationship with standard macro determinants (output and user cost) is verified for aggregate business capital stock as well as for individual Non-ICT assets but not for ICT. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment behaviour independently of the asset type. In the long-run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises over the latest Italian recession support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster the economic recovery.

Keywords: Evaluation of Macro models, ICT Investments, Uncertainty, Liquidity constraints

JEL Classification: C52, C53, E22, E50

Suggested Citation

Bacchini, Fabio and Bontempi, Maria Elena and Golinelli, Roberto and Jona Lasinio, Cecilia, ICT and Non-ICT Investments: Short and Long Run Macro Dynamics (July 16, 2014). Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 956, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2467603 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2467603

Fabio Bacchini (Contact Author)

Italian Statistical Institute ( email )

Via Cesare Balbo , 16
Rome
Italy

Maria Elena Bontempi

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Strada Maggiore, 45
40125 Bologna, 40125
Italy
+39 051 2092600 (Phone)
+39 051 2092664 (Fax)

Roberto Golinelli

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Strada Maggiore 45
Bologna, 40125
Italy
+39 051 209 2638 (Phone)
+39 051 209 2664 (Fax)

Cecilia Jona Lasinio

Italian Statistical Institute ( email )

Via Cesare Balbo , 16
Rome
Italy

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