Are Institutions Informed About News?
62 Pages Posted: 27 Jul 2014
Date Written: July 18, 2014
This paper combines daily non-public data on buy and sell volume by institutions from 2003 through 2005 for NYSE-listed stocks with all news announcements from Reuters. Natural language processing categorizes the sentiment associated with each news story. We use institutional order flow (buy volume minus sell volume) as a quantitative measure of net trading by institutions. We find evidence that institutional investors are informed: i) institutional trading volume predicts the occurrence of news announcements; ii) institutional order flow predicts the sentiment of the news; iii) institutional order flow predicts the stock market reaction on news announcement days; iv) institutional order flow predicts the stock market reaction on crisis news days; v) institutional order flow predicts earnings announcement surprises; and vi) institutions do not believe the hype.
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