Mean Variance Causality between the Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries
28 Pages Posted: 20 Nov 2000
Date Written: February 2000
This paper examines the issue of mean and variance causality across four Latin American official and black markets for foreign currency using the corresponding monthly exchange rate against the US dollar for the period 1976-1993. Specifically, we apply an EGARCH-M model to study the behaviour of the Argentinian peso, the Brazilian cruzeiro, the Chilean peso and the Mexican peso against the US dollar. Furthermore, we apply a recent test due to Cheung and Ng (1996) in order to test for the existence of any causality and volatility spillovers among these official and black markets for foreign exchange. The main findings of the analysis are: (i) In contrast to the findings of previous studies using monthly rates, EGARCH-M processes characterize each bilateral exchange rate series in both markets; (ii) There is substantial evidence of causality in both mean and variance with the causality in mean largely being driven by the causality in variance; and (iii) The results indicate that the major exporter of causality is the Mexican black market with the black market of Argentina and the black and official markets of Brazil being the least contributors.
Keywords: causality, cross-correlation function, EGARCH-M, black market, exchange rates, volatility spillovers
JEL Classification: F31, F32, C22, C52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation