The Perceived Probability of Job Loss and Future Labour Market Outcomes

19 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2014

See all articles by Seamus McGuinness

Seamus McGuinness

Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland

Mark Wooden

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Markus H. Hahn

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Date Written: July 2014

Abstract

Longitudinal survey data are used to test the degree to which worker expectations of future job loss are correlated with changes in labour market status. Three major findings are reported. First, perceived probabilities of expected job loss are only weakly related to both exogenous job separations and subsequent transitions to unemployment and inactivity. Second, while fears of job loss tend to persist across time and job spells, they do so at a highly diminishing rate. Third, quit intentions are strongly correlated with both voluntary separations and transitions to alternative employment, and do not diminish greatly across successive employment spells.

Suggested Citation

McGuinness, Seamus and Wooden, Mark and Hahn, Markus Hilmar, The Perceived Probability of Job Loss and Future Labour Market Outcomes (July 2014). Industrial Relations Journal, Vol. 45, Issue 4, pp. 329-347, 2014. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2472209 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irj.12061

Seamus McGuinness (Contact Author)

Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland ( email )

Dublin 4
Ireland

HOME PAGE: http://www.esri.ie/about_us/staff/view_all_staff/view/index.xml?id=1040

Mark Wooden

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )

Level 5, FBE Building, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Markus Hilmar Hahn

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )

Level 5, FBE Building, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia

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