Phases of the Canadian Business Cycle

Posted: 22 Sep 2001

See all articles by Philip M. Bodman

Philip M. Bodman

University of Queensland - Faculty of Business, Economics and Law

Mark Crosby

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Business School

Abstract

In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, 'two quarters of negative growth' rule for determining recession dates is the most similar to our chronology. We also find that the most recent recession in Canada was unique in both its length andthe slow speed of recovery.

JEL Classification: C22, C51, C52, E32

Suggested Citation

Bodman, Philip M. and Crosby, Mark, Phases of the Canadian Business Cycle. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=247366

Philip M. Bodman (Contact Author)

University of Queensland - Faculty of Business, Economics and Law ( email )

Brisbane QLD 4072, Queensland
Australia
(+61 7) 3365 3320 (Phone)

Mark Crosby

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Business School ( email )

200 Leicester Street
Carlton, Victoria 3053 3186
Australia

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