Phases of the Canadian Business Cycle
Posted: 22 Sep 2001
In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, 'two quarters of negative growth' rule for determining recession dates is the most similar to our chronology. We also find that the most recent recession in Canada was unique in both its length andthe slow speed of recovery.
JEL Classification: C22, C51, C52, E32
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