Mortality Improvements -- The Case of South Africa
Posted: 2 Aug 2014 Last revised: 28 Oct 2014
Date Written: August 1, 2014
We remedy the lack of quantified mortality improvement information for South Africa by deriving forecasts of the mortality trend based on the South African experience for the years 1996-2011 using the Lee-Carter (1985) and Cairns-Blake-Dowd (2006) models. We utilize a public health perspective to provide context to the modelled forecasts. Conversely, we discuss the possible benefits to public health policy provided by actuarial forecasts of mortality trends. Our results, which indicate a decreasing mortality trend for the geriatric population, are used to illustrate a range of annuity values and comment on the industry use of the PA(90) table. Lastly, we discuss possible implications of our forecast for future public health decision making and point the way to future research.
Note: Working paper is under review.
Keywords: Mortality Improvement, South Africa, Stochastic modeling
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation