The Effect of Early Flood Warnings on Mitigation and Recovery During the 2010 Pakistan Floods

Turner, Ginger; Said, Farah; Afzal, Uzma; Campbell, Karen. Preventing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change. United Nations Environmental Programme, edited by Ashbindu Singh and Zinta Zommers, Springer Netherlands, January 2014.

Posted: 6 Aug 2014

See all articles by Ginger Turner

Ginger Turner

World Bank

Farah Said

Centre for Research in Economics and Business, Lahore School of Economics

Uzma Afzal

University of Nottingham; Lahore School of Economics - Center for Research in Economics and Business

Karen A. Campbell

The Wharton School/Risk Management and Decision Process Center; IHS Economics

Date Written: August 4, 2014

Abstract

We estimate the effect of early warnings on the likelihood of households taking action to mitigate damages before the severe 2010 flood in Punjab, Pakistan. Using a survey of 640 households conducted after the floods, we find that face-to-face warnings significantly increase the probability of households taking any pre-flood mitigation action, while remote warnings such as television and radio announcements do not have a significant effect on taking any mitigation. For the most costly mitigation action of reinforcing the house structure, only warning from government officials or mosques significantly increases the likelihood of action. Receiving a warning and taking mitigation action reduces the actual loss of household structure value, and taking pre-flood mitigation action also significantly increases the likelihood of having recovered household possessions.

Suggested Citation

Turner, Ginger and Said, Farah and Afzal, Uzma and Campbell, Karen A., The Effect of Early Flood Warnings on Mitigation and Recovery During the 2010 Pakistan Floods (August 4, 2014). Turner, Ginger; Said, Farah; Afzal, Uzma; Campbell, Karen. Preventing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change. United Nations Environmental Programme, edited by Ashbindu Singh and Zinta Zommers, Springer Netherlands, January 2014., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2476039

Ginger Turner (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
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Farah Said

Centre for Research in Economics and Business, Lahore School of Economics ( email )

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Lahore, Punjab 53200
Pakistan

Uzma Afzal

University of Nottingham ( email )

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Lahore School of Economics - Center for Research in Economics and Business ( email )

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Karen A. Campbell

The Wharton School/Risk Management and Decision Process Center ( email )

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IHS Economics ( email )

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