Is There Anything Wrong with Putin's Electoral Ratings? A Study of 2012 Russian Presidential Elections

36 Pages Posted: 10 Aug 2014

See all articles by Kirill Kalinin

Kirill Kalinin

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace

Date Written: August 8, 2014

Abstract

Although the Russian Presidential election of 2012 is characterized by blatant fraud, the estimates released by major national polling organizations before and after the election showed close correspondence to official results. This fact implies the presence of a potential source of hidden inflation. Using the data from four national surveys, I am testing three alternative propositions aimed to explain the source of potential inflation in the Russian presidential ratings: the 'weighting,' the non-probability sampling design and, finally, the social desirability bias explanations. My findings suggest that the social desirability bias explanation is the most plausible one. I also perform an external validity check of my findings by using several randomized response techniques with respect to presidential approval ratings 2014.

Keywords: social desirability, Russian elections, electoral ratings

Suggested Citation

Kalinin, Kirill, Is There Anything Wrong with Putin's Electoral Ratings? A Study of 2012 Russian Presidential Elections (August 8, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2477995 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2477995

Kirill Kalinin (Contact Author)

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-6010
United States

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