Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings

20 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Patricia Geli

Patricia Geli

World Bank

Aart Kraay

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Hoveida Nobakht

World Bank

Date Written: August 1, 2014

Abstract

A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.

Keywords: Public Sector Management and Reform, Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Non Governmental Organizations, Consumption, Economics and Institutions

Suggested Citation

Geli, Patricia and Kraay, Aart and Nobakht, Hoveida, Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings (August 1, 2014). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7001. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2479666

Patricia Geli (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Aart Kraay

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-5756 (Phone)
202-522-3518 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/akraay

Hoveida Nobakht

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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