Bad Environments Good Environments: A Non-Gaussian Asymmetric Volatility Model
60 Pages Posted: 16 Aug 2014
Date Written: August 11, 2014
We propose an extension of standard asymmetric volatility models in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) class that admits conditional non-Gaussianities in a tractable fashion. Our bad environment-good environment" (BEGE) model utilizes two gamma-distributed shocks and generates a conditional shock distribution with time-varying heteroskedasticity, skewness, and kurtosis. The BEGE model features nontrivial news impact curves and closed-form solutions for higher-order moments. In an empirical application to stock returns, the BEGE model outperforms asymmetric GARCH and regime-switching models along several dimensions.
Keywords: non-Gaussianities, asymmetric volatility, GARCH, risk management, conditional skewness
JEL Classification: G11, G17
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