Rainy Day Politics -- An Instrumental Variables Approach to the Effect of Parties on Political Outcomes

39 Pages Posted: 20 Aug 2014

See all articles by Jo Thori Lind

Jo Thori Lind

University of Oslo - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: July 31, 2014

Abstract

Rain affects electoral turnout both through a direct effect on the cost of voting and by changing the opportunity cost. In a panel of Norwegian municipalities I find that rain on Election Day increases turnout. As turnout affects electoral outcomes, rain provides an exogeneous source of variation, and hence an instrument, for the party composition of the municipal council. I use this to estimate the causal effect of party composition on politics. I find that an increased share to left wing parties shift spending from education to kindergartens. Beyond this, there are few strong causal effects of political composition.

Keywords: rain, electoral turnout, instrumental variables, economic policy

JEL Classification: C26, D72, H11, H70

Suggested Citation

Lind, Jo Thori, Rainy Day Politics -- An Instrumental Variables Approach to the Effect of Parties on Political Outcomes (July 31, 2014). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4911. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2482986

Jo Thori Lind (Contact Author)

University of Oslo - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 1095 Blindern
N-0317 Oslo
Norway

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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