Market Timing Around the World

Posted: 23 Aug 2014 Last revised: 22 May 2019

See all articles by Marta Vidal

Marta Vidal

Universidad Europea de Madrid; Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)

Javier Vidal-García

Complutense University of Madrid; Harvard University

Sabri Boubaker

Ecole de Management de Normandie

Date Written: March 1, 2015


This paper challenges existing studies of mutual fund market timing that find little evidence of timing ability. Using a sample of daily returns for 35 countries, we find that more than a third of mutual funds show significantly positive market timing ability across all countries. We show that using daily rather than monthly returns increases the number of significant estimates of timing ability. This indicates that observation frequency is relevant when examining fund performance. We also find evidence for market timing in recessions and document that the effect of the business cycle on market timing is much stronger for extremely successful fund managers. Using a set of synthetic fund returns to control for spurious results, we show that the measured market timing is not a spurious statistical result.

Keywords: Mutual Funds, Market Timing, Portfolio Management, Short-Term Performance

JEL Classification: G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Vidal, Marta and Vidal-García, Javier and Vidal-García, Javier and Boubaker, Sabri, Market Timing Around the World (March 1, 2015). Journal of Alternative Investments, Volume 18, No. 2, Fall 2015: p. 61-89.,, Available at SSRN: or

Marta Vidal

Universidad Europea de Madrid ( email )

Villaviciosa de Odón
Madrid, 28670

Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) ( email )

Somosaguas Campus
Madrid, 28223

Javier Vidal-García (Contact Author)

Harvard University ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Complutense University of Madrid ( email )

School of Business Administration
Somosaguas Campus
Madrid, Madrid 28223

Sabri Boubaker

Ecole de Management de Normandie ( email )

9 rue Claude Bloch
Le Havre Cedex, Cedex 4 14052 Caen

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