Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis

46 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2014

See all articles by Philip R. Lane

Philip R. Lane

Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Ireland

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: August 2014

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.

Keywords: Global imbalances, Latin America, Caribbean, Current account deficits, Fiscal adjustment, Cross country analysis, Global crisis, Current account adjustment, current account, current account balance, current account balances, current account imbalances, current account deficit, external liabilities, net external liabilities, current account surpluses, global current account, global current account imbalances, external borrowing, net debt, currency crises, current account adjustments, debt forgiveness, debt reduction, current account reversals, capital account, current account position, reserve bank, external finance, debtor countries, balance sheet effects, central bank, external debt, balanc

JEL Classification: F31, F32

Suggested Citation

Lane, Philip R. and Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis (August 2014). IMF Working Paper No. 14/151. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2491602

Philip R. Lane

Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of Economics ( email )

Trinity College
Dublin 2
Ireland
+353 1 608 2259 (Phone)
+353 1 677 2503 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Central Bank of Ireland ( email )

P.O. Box 559
Dame Street
Dublin, 2
Ireland

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Room 9-700
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-7441 (Phone)
202-589-7441 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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