Climate Change Impacts: A New Integrated Assessment
24 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2014
Date Written: December 1, 2013
This report develops a climate change economic impact assessment, applying the Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System (ICES) model developed at CMCC. The inputs for the exercise derive from the updated estimation of climate change impacts conducted under GEMINA WP6.2.9 P55. They refer to changes in tourism and energy demand patterns; to changes in land and capital losses to sea-level rise, to changes in fish stock availability, to ecosystem losses, to changes in crops productivity, to changes in labour productivity related to changes in health status, to potential losses induced by river floods. They are also computed for two different temperature increase scenarios: 2◦C and 4◦C above pre-industrial level. Results show that: climate change impacts are non linear in temperature; that the Euro Mediterranean area is more vulnerable than Northern Europe, that losses can be relevant even in a context of smooth climate change without catastrophic events.
Keywords: Climate change impact assessment, CGE models
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