When is the Best Time to Give Birth?

29 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2014

See all articles by Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter

Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter

Johannes Kepler University - Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics

Christoph Pamminger

Johannes Kepler University Linz

Andrea Weber

Vienna University of Economics and Business; Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Johannes Kepler University Linz - Department of Economics; Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) - Department of Economics & Finance; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.

Keywords: Multinomial Logit, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Transition Data, family gap, timing of birth, fertility, Panel Data

JEL Classification: J13

Suggested Citation

Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia and Pamminger, Christoph and Weber, Andrea Michaela and Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, When is the Best Time to Give Birth?. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8396. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2492403

Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter (Contact Author)

Johannes Kepler University - Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics ( email )

Altenbergerstrasse 69
Linz
Austria

Christoph Pamminger

Johannes Kepler University Linz

Altenbergerstr. 69
A-4040 Linz, 4040
Austria

Andrea Michaela Weber

Vienna University of Economics and Business ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, 1020
Austria

Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) ( email )

P.O. Box 91
Wien, A-1103
Austria

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Johannes Kepler University Linz - Department of Economics ( email )

Altenbergerstrasse 69
A-4040 Linz, 4040
Austria
+43 732 2468 8236 (Phone)
+43 732 2468 8238 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.jku.at/winter

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) - Department of Economics & Finance ( email )

Stumpergasse 56
A-1060 Vienna, A-1060
Austria

HOME PAGE: http://www.ihs.ac.at

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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