Potential Output from a Euro Area Perspective

64 Pages Posted: 4 Nov 2014

See all articles by Robert Anderton

Robert Anderton

European Central Bank (ECB)

Ted Aranki

European Central Bank (ECB)

Alistair Dieppe

European Central Bank (ECB)

Catherine Elding

European Central Bank (ECB)

Stephan Krikor Haroutunian

European Central Bank (ECB)

Pascal Jacquinot

European Central Bank (ECB)

Valerie Jarvis

European Central Bank (ECB)

Vincent Labhard

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics

Desislava Rusinova

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations

Béla Szörfi

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: September 8, 2014

Abstract

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future.

Keywords: potential output, production function, output gap, structural reforms

JEL Classification: E23, E25, E32, E37, O49

Suggested Citation

Anderton, Robert and Aranki, Ted and Dieppe, Alistair and Elding, Catherine and Haroutunian, Stephan Krikor and Jacquinot, Pascal and Jarvis, Valerie and Labhard, Vincent and Rusinova, Desislava and Szörfi, Béla, Potential Output from a Euro Area Perspective (September 8, 2014). ECB Occasional Paper No. 156. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2493145

Robert Anderton (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
0049 69 13440 (Phone)
0044 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

Ted Aranki

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Alistair Dieppe

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Catherine Elding

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Stephan Krikor Haroutunian

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Pascal Jacquinot

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Valerie Jarvis

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Vincent Labhard

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Desislava Rusinova

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Béla Szörfi

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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