How Is It Possible for Keynes's Theory of Logical Probability to Be 'Non-Probabilistic'? Answer. Only If You Have Been Confused by Reading Frank P. Ramsey's Reviews of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability
21 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2014
Date Written: September 19, 2014
Ramsey’s fundamental error, made in both 1922 and in 1926, was to assume without any support that Keynes’s Logical Theory of Probability was based on ordinal measurement that could only be applied on some occasions. Keynes’s theory is not an ordinal theory at all. Keynes’s theory is an interval estimate theory of probability. Ramsey’s reviews of Keynes’s work in the A Treatise on Probability must now be consigned to the intellectual garbage dump of history where they belong.
Keywords: Interval estimates of probability, ordinal estimates, J M Keynes, F P Ramsey, non-probabilistic, upper and lower bounds
JEL Classification: B12, B20, B22, B30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation