Organized Crime and Electoral Outcomes in Sicily

Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 965

28 Pages Posted: 23 Sep 2014

See all articles by Paolo Buonanno

Paolo Buonanno

University of Bergamo

Giovanni Prarolo

University of Bologna; University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA)

Paolo Vanin

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 19, 2014

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between mafia and politics by focusing on the market for votes. It exploits the fact that in the early 1990s the Italian party system collapsed, new parties emerged and mafia families had to look for new political allies. It presents evidence, based on disaggregated data from the Italian region of Sicily, that between 1994 and 2008 Silvio Berlusconi’s party, Forza Italia, obtained higher vote shares in municipalities plagued by mafia. The result is robust to the use of different measures of mafia presence, both contemporary and historical, to the inclusion of different sets of controls and to spatial analysis. Instrumenting mafia’s presence by determinants of its early diffusion in the late XIX century suggests that the correlation reflects a causal link, which would be coherent with mafia’s choice to back Forza Italia in exchange for favorable policies.

Keywords: Elections, Mafia-type Organizations

JEL Classification: D72, K42

Suggested Citation

Buonanno, Paolo and Prarolo, Giovanni and Vanin, Paolo, Organized Crime and Electoral Outcomes in Sicily (September 19, 2014). Quaderni - Working Paper DSE N° 965, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2499449 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2499449

Giovanni Prarolo

University of Bologna ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40100
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www2.dse.unibo.it/prarolo/

University of Milan - Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano (LdA) ( email )

Via P. Amedeo 34
Milano, Mi 20122
Italy

Paolo Vanin

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, BO 40126
Italy
+39-0512098120 (Phone)
+39-0512098040 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/paolovanin/

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