The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions
6 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2000
Date Written: June 1996
The yield curve?specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill?is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
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