The Role of (Non)Transparency in a Currency Crisis Model

Abstract

This paper extends the work by Morris and Shin (1998) where multiple equilibria in the self-fulfilling currency attack models can be reduced to a unique equilibrium when agents observe fundamentals privately with small errors. We find that under a more general specification with realistic parameters, noisy private observations are generally insufficient to prevent the multiplicity of equilibria. The pivotal role played by the transparency of fundamentals/policies in currency crisis is also examined. Surprisingly, transparency may trigger rather than eliminate currency crises when fundamentals are relatively healthy. Our results may be relevant to research in other coordination problems.

Keywords: currency crisis, transparency, multiple equilibria, common knowledge

JEL Classification: F30,D80