The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation

34 Pages Posted: 25 Sep 2014

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2014

Abstract

The collapse of the global economy in 2008, following the outbreak of the financial crisis, and the ensuing economic developments of the so-called Great Recession (GR) led many economists to suggest that the Great Moderation (GM) had, indeed, come to an end. This paper offers evidence that the decrease in output volatility still remains in force despite the GR and would do so even if the GR continues to extended horizons. This finding has important implications not only for academics, concerning the implementation of theoretical and empirical techniques, but also for policymakers, regarding the understanding of the pattern of recovery from the current and future recessions

Keywords: business cycle, Markov Switching models, recoveries, volatility

JEL Classification: C22, E32

Suggested Citation

Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores and Gómez-Loscos, Ana and Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation (August 2014). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10092, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2501565

Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas (Contact Author)

University of Zaragoza ( email )

Gran Via 2
Zaragoza, 50005
Spain

Ana Gómez-Loscos

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

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