The Impact of Lease Structures on the Optimal Holding Period for a Commercial Real Estate Portfolio

31 Pages Posted: 1 Oct 2014

See all articles by Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme

Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme

Laval University - Business School

Michel Baroni

Ecole Superieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales (ESSEC)

Fabrice Barthélémy

University of Cergy-Pontoise - THEMA

Mahdi Mokrane

Ecole Superieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales (ESSEC)

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

Purpose:

The purpose of this paper is to exhibit the impacts of lease duration and lease break options on the optimal holding period for a real estate asset or portfolio. Methodology/approach: We use a Monte Carlo simulation framework to simulate a real estate assets cash-flows in which lease structures (rents indexation patterns overall lease duration and break options) are explicitly taken into account. We assume that a tenant exercises his/her option to break a lease if the rent paid as higher than the market rental value of similar properties. We also model vacancy duration stochastically using Poisson's law. Finally capital values and market rental values are simulated using specific stochastic processes. and are also assumed to be correlated. We derive the optimal holding period for the asset as the value that maximises its discounted value which is the sum of the discounted free cash flows and the discounted terminal. Findings: We demonstrate that. consistent with existing capital markets literature and real estate business practice, break-options in leases can dramatically alter optimal holding periods for real estate assets and portfolios by extension. We show that, everything else being equal, shorter lease durations, higher market rental value volatility, increasing negative rental reversion, higher vacancy duration, more break options all tend to decrease the optimal holding period of a real estate asset. The converse is also true.

Practical implications:

Practitioners are insights as well as a practical methodology for determining the ex-ante optimal holding period for an asset or a portfolio based on a number of market and asset specific parameters including the lease structure.

Originality/value: The originality of the paper derives from taking an explicit modelling approach to lease duration and lease breaks as additional sources of asset specific risk alongside market risk. This is critical in real estate portfolio management because such specific risk is usually difficult to diversify.

Keywords: Real estate, Portfolio management, Simulation, Optimal holding period

JEL Classification: C60, G11, R39

Suggested Citation

Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier and Baroni, Michel and Barthélémy, Fabrice and Mokrane, Mahdi, The Impact of Lease Structures on the Optimal Holding Period for a Commercial Real Estate Portfolio (2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2503408 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2503408

Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme (Contact Author)

Laval University - Business School ( email )

2325 rue de la Terrasse
local 3652
Québec, Quebec G1V0A6
Canada

Michel Baroni

Ecole Superieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales (ESSEC) ( email )

3 Avenue Bernard Hirsch
CS 50105 CERGY
CERGY, CERGY PONTOISE CEDEX 95021
France

Fabrice Barthélémy

University of Cergy-Pontoise - THEMA ( email )

33 boulevard du port
F-95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, 95011
France

Mahdi Mokrane

Ecole Superieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales (ESSEC) ( email )

3 Avenue Bernard Hirsch
CS 50105 CERGY
CERGY, CERGY PONTOISE CEDEX 95021
France

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