The Productivity Consequences of Political Turnover: Firm-Level Evidence from Ukraine's Orange Revolution

45 Pages Posted: 4 Oct 2014

See all articles by John S. Earle

John S. Earle

George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Scott Gehlbach

University of Wisconsin-Madison

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Abstract

We examine the impact of political turnover on economic performance in a setting of largely unanticipated political change and profoundly weak institutions: the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Exploiting census-type panel data on over 7,000 manufacturing enterprises, we find that the productivity of firms in the regions most supportive of Viktor Yushchenko increased by more than 15 percentage points in the three years following his election, relative to that in the most anti-Yushchenko regions. We conclude that this effect is driven primarily by particularistic rather than general economic policies that disproportionately increased output among large enterprises, government suppliers, and private enterprises – three types of firms that had much to gain or lose from turnover at the national level. Our results demonstrate that political turnover in the context of weak institutions can have substantial distributional effects that are reflected in economic productivity.

Keywords: political connections, firm behavior, voting, transition

JEL Classification: H32, D72, P26

Suggested Citation

Earle, John S. and Gehlbach, Scott, The Productivity Consequences of Political Turnover: Firm-Level Evidence from Ukraine's Orange Revolution. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8510. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2505372

John S. Earle (Contact Author)

George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government ( email )

3351 Fairfax Drive
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HOME PAGE: http://earle.gmu.edu

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Germany

Scott Gehlbach

University of Wisconsin-Madison ( email )

1050 Bascom Mall
Madison, WI 53706
United States
608-263-2391 (Phone)

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