Carbon Emissions Scenarios in Europe Based on an Endogenous Growth Model

35 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2014

See all articles by Anna Ciesielski

Anna Ciesielski

ifo Institut

Richard S. J. Tol

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM); Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change; University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK); Princeton University

Date Written: September 29, 2014

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions are a major force driving climate change. We construct scenarios of CO2 emissions from fossil energy until 2100 in Europe. Major innovations are first that economic growth is based on an endogenous economic growth model and second that we calibrate our model to historical data on population and GDP since 1850. We provide statistically valid confidence intervals of economic growth to indicate the accuracy of our forecasts and we show that aggregate forecasts vary with their spatial resolution. We find stronger income divergence between Western- and Eastern European countries than is projected in the 'Middle of the Road' scenario of the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2), a framework which was adopted together with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

Keywords: CO2 emissions, endogenous growth, scenarios

JEL Classification: Q54

Suggested Citation

Ciesielski, Anna and Tol, Richard S. J., Carbon Emissions Scenarios in Europe Based on an Endogenous Growth Model (September 29, 2014). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4971, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2506531

Anna Ciesielski

ifo Institut ( email )

Poschingerstr. 5
Munich, DE 81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo-group.de/ciesielski-a

Richard S. J. Tol (Contact Author)

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31 20 444 9555 (Phone)
+31 20 444 9553 (Fax)

Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK)

Troplowitzstrasse 7
D-22529 Hamburg
Germany

Princeton University ( email )

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

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