The Impact of TTIP: The Underlying Economic Model and Comparisons

CEPS Special Reports, 2014

76 Pages Posted: 16 Oct 2014

See all articles by Jacques Pelkmans

Jacques Pelkmans

Centre for European Policy Studies

Arjan Lejour

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis; Tilburg University

Lorna Schrefler

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Federica Mustilli

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Jacopo Timini

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Banco de España; Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Date Written: October 14, 2014

Abstract

What are the economic and other impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership? At the request of the European Parliament, CEPS has provided an appraisal of the TTIP Impact Assessment carried out by the European Commission, with special elaboration of the underlying economic model. The methodology applied by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) for this economic modelling is analysed in depth, together with the assumptions used to make TTIP amenable to an economic appraisal. The research paper also compares the IA on TTIP with selected previous empirical economic assessments of EU trade agreements and with a set of alternative studies on TTIP itself. In reading our findings, two central caveats should be kept in mind that affect any analysis of the CGE model included in the European Commission’s Impact Assessment. First, TTIP is a rather unusual bilateral trade agreement; and second, TTIP is so wide-ranging that an alternative approach, such as the so-called ‘partial’ (equilibrium) approach – already a second-best solution – would be totally inappropriate to the case under examination.

This paper is the first in a special series of CEPS reports on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The study was commissioned by the Ex-Ante Impact Assessment Unit of the Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value, within the Directorate General for Parliamentary Research Services (DG EPRS) of the General Secretariat of the European Parliament, at the request of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade (INTA). The main conclusions were presented to the MEPs on 1 April 2014 in the INTA Committee.

Keywords: TTIP, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP Impact Assessment

Suggested Citation

Pelkmans, Jacques and Lejour, Arjan M. and Schrefler, Lorna and Mustilli, Federica and Timini, Jacopo, The Impact of TTIP: The Underlying Economic Model and Comparisons (October 14, 2014). CEPS Special Reports, 2014. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2510301

Jacques Pelkmans (Contact Author)

Centre for European Policy Studies ( email )

1 Place du Congres
B-1000 Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Arjan M. Lejour

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

Bezuidenhoutseweg 30
po box 80510
The Hague, 2594AV
Netherlands
+31 652485843 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpb.nl/en/medewerkers/arjan-lejour

Tilburg University ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE Ti
Netherlands
+31 652485843 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://research.tilburguniversity.edu/en/persons/arjan-lejour

Lorna Schrefler

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Federica Mustilli

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Jacopo Timini

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ( email )

CL. de Madrid 126
Madrid, 28903
Spain

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres, 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

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