Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth and Trade with Resource‐Rich Economies by 2030

17 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2014

See all articles by Kym Anderson

Kym Anderson

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2014

Abstract

Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource‐poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the ongoing benefit of natural resource‐rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming that trade‐related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one‐quarter and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource‐abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

Keywords: Asian economic growth and structural change, booming sector economics, food security, global economy‐wide model projections

Suggested Citation

Anderson, Kym and Strutt, Anna, Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth and Trade with Resource‐Rich Economies by 2030 (October 2014). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 58, Issue 4, pp. 590-606, 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2512992 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12039

Kym Anderson (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES) ( email )

School of Economics
Adelaide SA 5005
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University ( email )

Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics
Coombs Building
Canberra, AK ACT 2600
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://publicpolicy.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/kanderson.php

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato ( email )

Te Raupapa
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton, 3240
New Zealand

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