Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998

AgMas Project Research Report No. 2000-03

67 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2000

See all articles by Scott H. Irwin

Scott H. Irwin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

João Martines-Filho

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Thomas E. Jackson

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Date Written: November 2000

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1998 corn and soybean crops. It is debatable whether the performance of advisory services also is economically significant. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance.

JEL Classification: Q11, Q13, Q14, G14

Suggested Citation

Irwin, Scott and Good, Darrel L. and Martines-Filho, João and Jackson, Thomas E., Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998 (November 2000). AgMas Project Research Report No. 2000-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=251945 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.251945

Scott Irwin (Contact Author)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

344 Mumford Hall
1301 W. Gregory Dr.
Urbana, IL 61801
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217-333-6087 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://scotthirwin.com/

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
326 Mumford Hall, MC-710
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

João Martines-Filho

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

Thomas E. Jackson

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
434a Mumford Hall
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
(217) 333-2792 (Phone)
(217) 333-5538 (Fax)

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