Were the 2014 United States Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated?
43 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2014 Last revised: 15 Apr 2015
Date Written: April 14, 2015
Is it possible electronic vote-count manipulation determines who controls government in the United States? The probability that the disparities between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. A method for extending and simplifying fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)'s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland's 2014 gubernatorial contest is most consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome. An analysis of Maryland's partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as a likely explanation for its unexpected outcome.
Keywords: DRE, vote fraud, 2014 elections, opinion polls, poll disparity, US Senate election, US Governor elections, Diebold, Maryland
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