The Impact of Sovereign Shocks
57 Pages Posted: 17 Nov 2014 Last revised: 21 Jan 2017
Date Written: October 1, 2016
We investigate the interrelationships between macro-systems of governments and financial institutions by studying the dynamic propagation mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks. We propose a novel approach to identify relevant systemic shocks and to classify them into sovereign or banking categories. Our econometric framework quantifies the impact and spillover rates of systemic shocks within and across systems. We find that sovereign shocks have a significant and persistent impact on the probability of a collective banking default, but not vice versa. Finally, we explore sources of systemic fragility, potential mechanisms of shock transmission, and their implications for the real economy.
Keywords: Systemic Risk, Contagion Risk, Banking Risk, Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Space, Narrative Approach, Real Economy
JEL Classification: E44, E50, G21, G28
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation