Performance Evaluation of Integrated System to Model the Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-Geological Hazard

23 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2014  

Rianna Guido

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Renata Vezzoli

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Nicola Ciro Zollo

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Paola Mercogliano

Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) - Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC)

Date Written: October 2014

Abstract

This paper provides the main results about the validation of the modeling chain used to estimate the variation in geo-hydrological hazard induced by Climate Changes (CC); it represents one of the milestone for year 2014 of GEMINA project within the work package A.2.17. In particular, the work package A.2.17 "Analysis of geological risk related to climate change" has as main goal the analysis of the impacts of Climate Changes on occurrence and magnitude of landslides, floods and low flows conditions on some specific contexts of the Mediterranean area. We show that the integrated system combines, in adequate way, high resolution regional climate scenarios, models of impacts and statistical downscaling techniques. In addition, this document contains a description of test cases on which the integrated system has been verified.

Keywords: dynamical downscaling, quantile mapping, floods, Po river basin, pyroclastic covers, flowslides

Suggested Citation

Guido, Rianna and Vezzoli, Renata and Zollo, Nicola Ciro and Mercogliano, Paola, Performance Evaluation of Integrated System to Model the Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-Geological Hazard (October 2014). CMCC Research Paper No. 230. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2526731 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2526731

Rianna Guido (Contact Author)

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

Renata Vezzoli

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

Nicola Ciro Zollo

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

Paola Mercogliano

Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) - Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory ( email )

Capua (CE)
Italy

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (CMCC-ISC) ( email )

Lecce
Italy

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