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Noise Bubbles

Baffi Center Research Paper No. 2014-160

40 Pages Posted: 20 Nov 2014

See all articles by Mario Forni

Mario Forni

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Faculty of Business and Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Luca Gambetti

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

Marco Lippi

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DiSSE); Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)

Luca Sala

University of Bocconi - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER)

Date Written: November 2014

Abstract

We introduce imperfect information in stock prices determination. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. Equilibrium stock prices include a transitory "noise bubble" which can be responsible for boom and bust episodes unrelated to economic fundamentals. We propose a non-standard VAR procedure to estimate impulse response functions to noise shock and the bubble component of stock prices. Noise explains a large fraction of US stock prices. The dot-com bubble is explained by noise. The 2007 stock price boom is not a bubble, whereas the following stock market crisis is due to negative noise shocks.

Keywords: Rational bubbles, structural VARs, noise shocks

JEL Classification: C32, E32, E62

Suggested Citation

Forni, Mario and Gambetti, Luca and Lippi, Marco and Sala, Luca, Noise Bubbles (November 2014). Baffi Center Research Paper No. 2014-160. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2527954 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2527954

Mario Forni

Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE) - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Viale Berengario 51
41100 Modena, Modena 41100
Italy
+39 059 205 6852 (Phone)
+39 059 205 6947 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Luca Gambetti

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Marco Lippi

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DiSSE) ( email )

14 Via Cesalpino
Rome, 00161
Italy
+39 06 4428 4202 (Phone)
+39 06 4404 572 (Fax)

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) ( email )

Via Due Macelli, 73
Rome, 00187
Italy

Luca Sala (Contact Author)

University of Bocconi - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER) ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy
+39 02 5836 3326 (Phone)

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