Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks

18 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2014

See all articles by Rosa Hayes

Rosa Hayes

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Masami Imai

Wesleyan University

Cameron A. Shelton

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2015

Abstract

This article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home-grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters - all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems - do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth.

JEL Classification: E3, E6

Suggested Citation

Hayes, Rosa and Imai, Masami and Shelton, Cameron A., Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks (January 2015). Economic Inquiry, Vol. 53, Issue 1, pp. 258-275, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2528830 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12116

Rosa Hayes (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

Masami Imai

Wesleyan University ( email )

Middletown, CT 06459
United States
860-685-2155 (Phone)

Cameron A. Shelton

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance ( email )

500 E. Ninth St.
Claremont, CA 91711-6420
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
254
PlumX Metrics