The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Journal of Globalization and Development 08/2011; 2(1):6-6. DOI: 10.2202/1948-1837.1058

Posted: 26 Nov 2014

See all articles by Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER)

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Finn Tarp

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics

Clemens Breisinger

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: August 2011

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Suggested Citation

Arndt, Channing and Thurlow, James and Tarp, Finn and Breisinger, Clemens, The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam (August 2011). Journal of Globalization and Development 08/2011; 2(1):6-6. DOI: 10.2202/1948-1837.1058. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2530537

Channing Arndt (Contact Author)

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6 B
Helsinki, FI‐00160
Finland

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6B
Helsinki, FIN-00160
Finland

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Finn Tarp

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics ( email )

Øster Farimagsgade 5
Bygning 26
1353 Copenhagen K.
Denmark

Clemens Breisinger

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

2033 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006
United States

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