Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique

Sustainability Science 01/2011; 6(1):7-20. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-010-0118-9

Posted: 26 Nov 2014

See all articles by Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER)

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Finn Tarp

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2011

Abstract

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US 2.3 to US 7.4 billion during 2003-2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.

Keywords: Climate change, Biophysical and economic outcomes, General equilibrium modelling, Mozambique

Suggested Citation

Arndt, Channing and Strzepek, Kenneth and Tarp, Finn and Thurlow, James, Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique (January 2011). Sustainability Science 01/2011; 6(1):7-20. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-010-0118-9 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2530562

Channing Arndt (Contact Author)

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6 B
Helsinki, FI‐00160
Finland

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Finn Tarp

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics ( email )

Øster Farimagsgade 5
Bygning 26
1353 Copenhagen K.
Denmark

James Thurlow

UNU-WIDER ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6B
Helsinki, FIN-00160
Finland

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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