Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Tanzania

UNU-WIDER 09/2011; 2011/52.

Posted: 26 Nov 2014

See all articles by Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER)

William Farmer

Tufts University

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2011

Abstract

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are generally considered to be most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no climate change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favourable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. The economic modelling indicates that markets have the potential to smooth outcomes on households across regions and income groups, though noteworthy differences in impacts across households persist both by region and by income category.

Keywords: climate change; agriculture; food security; crop model; CGE model; Tanzania

JEL Classification: Q1, Q54

Suggested Citation

Arndt, Channing and Farmer, William and Strzepek, Kenneth, Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Tanzania (September 2011). UNU-WIDER 09/2011; 2011/52.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2530941

Channing Arndt (Contact Author)

United Nations - World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) ( email )

Katajanokanlaituri 6 B
Helsinki, FI‐00160
Finland

William Farmer

Tufts University ( email )

Medford, MA 02155
United States

Kenneth Strzepek

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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