中国金融开放之路: 个人境外投资的视角及香港的作用 (China's Road to Financial Opening: A Perspective of Chinese Individual Outward Investments and the Role of Hong Kong)
39 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2014 Last revised: 11 Sep 2022
Date Written: November 28, 2014
This occasional paper was written by Yinggang Zhou (The Chinese University of Hong Kong).
Chinese Abstract: 随着中国资本项目的进一步开放，未来可期中国成为金融大国，其中一个表现就是中国企业和居民的对外投资会呈现非常高速的增长。伴随着数十年中国经济高速增长，私人财富总额与高净值家庭数量持续快速增长，离岸投资和财富管理需求日益强劲。同时，在中国大陆，金融抑制还依然严重，资产配置及投资需求难以得到满足，到境外寻找保值和增值的“替代性”投资具有其微观理性。从宏观的角度讲，有序地放开个人境外投资有利于治理流动性泛滥、缓解资产泡沫、通货膨胀和人民币被升值、推进资本项目开放。从战略上看，中国是一个官方债权大国，风险大而集中，应积极向“私人债权大国”转型，而“藏汇于民”并鼓励其对外投资是金融开放和战略转型的必由之路，将助推中国成为金融大国。
English Abstract: China will become a global financial power as its capital account liberalization accelerates. In particular, gross flows out of China and outward investment would be substantial for several reasons. First, China’s total amount of private wealth and the number of high-net-worth families have been growing steadily with the rapid economic growth for decades. The demand for offshore investment and wealth management are increasingly strong. Second, investors’ demand for asset allocation and investment is hardly met given the significant financial repression in China. Thus, individual investors have strong incentive to seek for oversea investment opportunities. From a macro perspective, an orderly liberalization of outward investment for individuals can ease the excess liquidity, asset bubbles, inflation and the appreciation of RMB. From the strategic point of view, China is a big creditor with most of the foreign exchange reserves held in official institutions. Such public debt financing is risky and concentrated and thus should be transformed into private debt financing. The key is to allow individuals to hold more foreign exchange reserves and encourage them to invest oversea, which would lead China to become a global financial power.
Following capital account liberalization with Chinese characteristics, which is a proactive, controllable and gradualist path, Hong Kong is a preferred destination of Chinese individual outward investment. Based on SWOT analysis of Hong Kong, I propose the following top-down designs. Hong Kong should lead the trend of Chinese capital outflow and seize the opportunity outlined in the China’s ‘twelfth five-year plan’, which aims to build Hong Kong as an international asset management center and offshore RMB center, to further upgrade the existing financial service industry into a ‘financial shopping paradise’. Meanwhile, Hong Kong should actively promote the internationalization of RMB, and gain the pricing power of offshore RMB and international asset, to run parallel to and compete with world-class international financial centers, such as New York and London, and become a ‘Pearl of the Orient’ in the future international monetary system with multiple reserve currencies of US dollar, Euro and RMB.
Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.
Keywords: Financial Opening, RMB Internationalization, China, Hong Kong
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