Evaluating the Robustness of UK Term Structure Decompositions Using Linear Regression Methods

37 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2014

See all articles by Sheheryar Malik

Sheheryar Malik

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Andrew Meldrum

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: December 5, 2014

Abstract

This paper evaluates the robustness of UK bond term premia from affine term structure models. We show that this approach is able to match standard specification tests. In addition, term premia display countercyclical behaviour and are positively related to uncertainty about future inflation, consistent with previous findings for the United States. Premia are robust to correction for small sample bias and the inclusion of macro variables as unspanned factors. Including survey information about short rate expectations, which is a common way of improving identification of affine term structure models, however, results in inferior performance using UK data, as measured by standard specification tests and the economic plausibility of the estimated premia. Finally, we show that imposing the zero lower bound within a shadow rate term structure model does not have a large impact on estimates of long-maturity term premia.

Keywords: Affine term structure model, term premia, bias correction, interest rate surveys, unspanned macro risks, shadow rate model

JEL Classification: E43, G10, G12

Suggested Citation

Malik, Sheheryar and Meldrum, Andrew, Evaluating the Robustness of UK Term Structure Decompositions Using Linear Regression Methods (December 5, 2014). Bank of England Working Paper No. 518, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2534455 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2534455

Sheheryar Malik

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Andrew Meldrum (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

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