Optimal Forecasts from Markov Switching Models
48 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 2014
Date Written: December 15, 2014
Abstract
We derive optimal weights for Markov switching models by weighting observations such that forecasts are optimal in the MSFE sense. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the effect of uncertainty around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into account. Performance of the optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application to US GNP, where using optimal weights leads to significant reductions in MSFE.
Keywords: Markov switching models, forecasting, optimal weights, GNP forecasting
JEL Classification: C25, C53, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation