Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-Analysis

33 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 2014

See all articles by Laura Diaz Anadon

Laura Diaz Anadon

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Gabriel Chan

University of Minnesota - Minneapolis - Humphrey School of Public Affairs

Gregory F. Nemet

University of Wisconsin - Madison - La Follette School of Public Affairs

Elena Verdolini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 5, 2014

Abstract

Characterizing the future performance of energy technologies can improve the development of energy policies that have net benefits under a broad set of future conditions. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) that promote technological change can benefit from (1) an explicit consideration of the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process and (2) a systematic evaluation of the tradeoffs in investment allocations across different technologies. To shed light on these questions, over the past five years several groups in the United States and Europe have conducted expert elicitations and modeled the resulting societal benefits. In this paper, we discuss the lessons learned from the design and implementation of these initiatives in four respects. First, we discuss lessons from the development of ten energy-technology expert elicitation protocols, highlighting the challenge of matching elicitation design with a particular modeling tool. Second, we report insights from the use of expert elicitations to optimize RD&D investment portfolios. These include a discussion of the rate of decreasing marginal returns to research, the optimal level of overall investments, and the sensitivity of results to policy scenarios and selected metrics for evaluation. Third, we discuss the effect of combining online elicitation tools with in-person group discussions on the usefulness of the results. Fourth, we summarize the results of a meta-analysis of elicited data across research groups to identify the association between expert characteristics and elicitation results.

Keywords: Expert elicitations, energy technology innovation, public R&D, meta-analysis, optimization

Suggested Citation

Diaz Anadon, Laura and Bosetti, Valentina and Chan, Gabriel and Nemet, Gregory F. and Verdolini, Elena, Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-Analysis (November 5, 2014). HKS Working Paper No. RWP14-054. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2538626 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2538626

Laura Diaz Anadon (Contact Author)

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) ( email )

79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Gabriel Chan

University of Minnesota - Minneapolis - Humphrey School of Public Affairs ( email )

130 Humphrey School, 301 19th Ave. S
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
612-626-8910 (Phone)
612-625-3513 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hhh.umn.edu/

Gregory F. Nemet

University of Wisconsin - Madison - La Follette School of Public Affairs ( email )

1225 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53705
United States

Elena Verdolini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

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