A"Delphi Exercise"As a Tool in Amazon Rainforest Valuation

48 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Jon Strand

Jon Strand

World Bank

Richard T. Carson

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics

Ariel Ortiz-Bobea

Cornell University

Jeffrey Vincent

Duke University

Date Written: December 1, 2014


The Amazon rainforest, the world's largest and most biodiverse, represents a global public good of which 15 percent has already been lost. The worldwide value of preserving the remaining forest is today unknown. A "Delphi" exercise was conducted involving more than 200 environmental valuation experts from 36 countries, who were asked to predict the outcome of a survey to elicit willingness to pay for Amazon forest preservation among their own countries' populations. Expert judgments of average willingness-to-pay levels, per household per year, to fund a plan to protect all of the current Amazon rainforest up to 2050, range from $4 to $36 in 12 Asian countries, to near $100 in Canada, Germany, and Norway, with other high-income countries in between. Somewhat lower willingness-to-pay values were found for a less strict plan that allows a 12 percent further rainforest area reduction. The elasticity of experts' willingness-to-pay assessments with respect to own-country per capita income is slightly below but not significantly different from unity when results are pooled across countries and income is adjusted for purchasing power parity.

Keywords: Global Environment

Suggested Citation

Strand, Jon and Carson, Richard T. and Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel and Vincent, Jeffrey, A"Delphi Exercise"As a Tool in Amazon Rainforest Valuation (December 1, 2014). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7143, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2542456

Jon Strand (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
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Richard T. Carson

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
United States
619-534-6319 (Phone)
619-534-7655 (Fax)

Ariel Ortiz-Bobea

Cornell University ( email )

Ithaca, NY
United States
(607) 255-0220 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://ortiz-bobea.dyson.cornell.edu

Jeffrey Vincent

Duke University ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

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