Is the Business Cycles a Necessary Consequence of Stochastic Growth?

59 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2000 Last revised: 17 Sep 2010

See all articles by Julio J. Rotemberg

Julio J. Rotemberg

Harvard University, Business, Government and the International Economy Unit (deceased); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (deceased)

Michael Woodford

Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: February 1994

Abstract

We compute the forecastable changes in output, consumption, and hours implied by a VAR that includes the growth rate of private value added, the share of output that is consumed, and the detrended level of private hours. We show that the size of the forecastable changes in output greatly exceeds that predicted by a standard stochastic growth model, of the kind studied by real business cycle theorists. Contrary to the model's implications, forecastable movements in labor productivity are small and only weakly related to forecasted changes in output. Also, forecasted movements in investment and hours are positively correlated with forecasted movements in output. Finally, and again in contrast to what the growth model implies, forecasted output movements are positively related to the current level of the consumption share and negatively related to the level of hours. We also show that these contrasts between the model and the observations are robust to allowance for measurement error and a variety of other types of transitory disturbances.

Suggested Citation

Rotemberg, Julio J. and Woodford, Michael, Is the Business Cycles a Necessary Consequence of Stochastic Growth? (February 1994). NBER Working Paper No. w4650. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=254536

Julio J. Rotemberg (Contact Author)

Harvard University, Business, Government and the International Economy Unit (deceased) ( email )

Cambridge, MA
United States
617-495-1015 (Phone)
617-496-5994 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (deceased)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Michael Woodford

Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics ( email )

420 W. 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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