The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America

58 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016 Last revised: 27 Apr 2018

See all articles by Erhan Artuc

Erhan Artuc

World Bank; World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Daniel Lederman

World Bank - Latin America and Caribbean Region

Diego Rojas

World Bank

Date Written: January 1, 2015

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and Paraguay. The paper uses the index and a model of labor mobility, to calculate the impact of China's growth on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The resulting evidence suggests that the rise of China has had positive effects on agriculture and mining in Argentina and Brazil, which offset negative impacts on manufacturing industries, thus leaving total employment and real wages virtually unchanged in the long run. In contrast, the estimated impacts of China's rise on Mexico imply that the sizable shock to manufacturing was not offset by the positive shocks on mining and agriculture, reducing employment in the long run. The paper also discusses the effect of China on the degree of informality in these three economies and contrasts short-run and long-run effects on employment and wages across industries.

Keywords: Food & Beverage Industry, Common Carriers Industry, Construction Industry, Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies, General Manufacturing, Plastics & Rubber Industry, Textiles, Apparel & Leather Industry, Pulp & Paper Industry, Mining & Extractive Industry (Non-Energy), Food Security, Rural Labor Markets, Labor Markets

Suggested Citation

Artuc, Erhan and Lederman, Daniel and Rojas, Diego, The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America (January 1, 2015). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7155, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2546149

Erhan Artuc (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

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World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

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Daniel Lederman

World Bank - Latin America and Caribbean Region ( email )

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Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/danielledermanworldbank/

Diego Rojas

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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