A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Imperfectly Integrated Financial Markets

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determination of global equity portfolios and stock returns in the context of imperfectly integrated stock markets. We consider a continuous-time, two-country endowment economy, where the level of financial integration is captured by a proportional tax on foreign dividends. Despite the investor heterogeneity induced by this tax, we obtain approximate closed-form expressions for asset prices, and characterize equity holdings and the joint process followed by country-level stock returns in equilibrium. Our model is consistent with a broad range of empirical findings on international financial integration. When the (endogenous) cross-country return correlation is high, small frictions in equity markets can generate a substantial home bias in portfolios. In the baseline version of our model, the cross-country return correlation is driven by the fundamental correlation and portfolio rebalancing. In a two-good extension of the model, the adjustment of relative good prices can generate a high stock return correlation even for a low level of fundamental correlation, magnifying the impact of the financial friction on portfolios. We assess the quantitative performance of the model in a calibration exercise using data from G7 countries.

Keywords: Two Trees, Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Investors, Home Bias in Portfolios, International Stock Return Correlations, Financial Integration

JEL Classification: G15, F30, G11, G12