Financial Integration and China's Global Impact

33 Pages Posted: 10 Jan 2015

See all articles by Rod Tyers

Rod Tyers

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics; The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics

Date Written: January 1, 2015

Abstract

Product and financial market integration determine the global implications of China’s recent growth surge and its on-going transition from export led growth. These alter China’s structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), which in turn shifts the international terms of trade, changing asset yields causing deflationary and then inflationary pressures abroad. The effects are here quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing, in which asset differentiation is used to index financial integration. The growth surge is found to have conferred on the advanced economies gains in their terms of trade, incompletely offset by structural unemployment. By contrast, the global effects of the transition are shown to reverse some of these impacts and to be amplified by further financial integration, particularly for the US.

Keywords: Financial integration, China, imbalances, saving, monetary policy, spill-overs

JEL Classification: F42, F43, F47

Suggested Citation

Tyers, Rod, Financial Integration and China's Global Impact (January 1, 2015). Crawford School CAMA Working Paper No. 2/2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2547265 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2547265

Rod Tyers (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics ( email )

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The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/staff-profiles?type=profile&dn=cn%3DRodney%20Tyers%2Cou%3DEcon

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