Revolution Empirics: Predicting the Arab Spring

Empirical Economics, 51(2), pp. 439-482 (September, 2016).

36 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last revised: 6 Aug 2016

See all articles by Simplice Asongu

Simplice Asongu

African Governance and Development Institute

Jacinta Nwachukwu

University of Huddersfield - Business School

Date Written: August 10, 2014

Abstract

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.

Keywords: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth

JEL Classification: N17; O11; O20; O47; P52

Suggested Citation

Asongu, Simplice and Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., Revolution Empirics: Predicting the Arab Spring (August 10, 2014). Empirical Economics, 51(2), pp. 439-482 (September, 2016). . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2548087 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2548087

Simplice Asongu (Contact Author)

African Governance and Development Institute ( email )

P.O. Box 8413
Yaoundé, 8413
Cameroon

Jacinta C. Nwachukwu

University of Huddersfield - Business School ( email )

Queensgate
Huddersfield HD1 3DH
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
59
Abstract Views
445
rank
377,405
PlumX Metrics