Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

Abstract

This paper explores two possible connections between hard cases in law and Newcomb’s Paradox in philosophy. One is that Newcomb’s Problem is like a “hard case” in law -- i.e. a choice problem with conflicting and equally logical solutions. The other is that the superior being in Newcomb’s Problem and the mythical Judge Hercules in Ronald Dworkin’s theory of law are the same person. In particular, we claim that Judge Hercules, who we would rechristen Judge Bayes, has the near-perfect ability to predict the outcome of hard cases.

Keywords: Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

JEL Classification: B16, K40, K41